So, Samvel Martirosyan writes on telegram, that he spoke with Artsakh military and other gov people, and

a. The probability of new offensive (Azerbaijani, obviously), is extremely high now. b. Because now it is hard for them to be invisible while approaching our positions (we have cameras and drones), the easiest way to bring military to the border is conducting military exercises. And now Azerbaijan is conducting military exercises without a pause, and it looks like those are very expensive. c. The probability of war will be much higher after July 14, when the football championship will be over. Before that starting the war can offend the Russian side. By the same logic, now they almost don’t shoot at the borders. e. The offensive probably will start from the south, so that less people will be affected, to decrease response of international community.

#armenia #artsakh #war #peace #nkpeace

բնօրինակ սփիւռքում(եւ մեկնաբանութիւննե՞ր)

Putin’s nationalist propaganda resembles the US propaganda used to convince Americans to have faith that the US is the “good guy” in every war, in disregard of all truth. However, Putin’s version is even stronger.

#putin #russia #usa #propaganda #war #peace #rms #stallman #quote

բնօրինակ սփիւռքում(եւ մեկնաբանութիւննե՞ր)

Was it nice by naive Europe and US to support movement in Ukraine toward EU, and then refuse to help in case of Russian aggression? They didn’t expect it? Or they are so afraid of Russia?

Was it nice that when US, Britain and Russia demanded Ukraine to refuse from all their nuclear power, and promised to be warrants of Ukrainian territorial wholeness, that Russia was first who broke the agreement, by aggression, while UK and US just forgot about the paper. US even refuses to sell weapons to Ukraine.

Now, because of absence of western military support, Ukraine cannot fight Russian tanks, and cannot fight professionals from Russia. That’s why Poroshenko had to retreat and do what the monster, the Russian Tsar wants.

but that was predicted back in March by the former Putin’s advisor, and I have shared his talk in Russian yesterday. Putin will go as far as West will allow him.

What can stop tanks? Unfortunately, yes, other tanks can stop tanks. Man with a bag did not stop tanks moving to Tiananmen square. Tanks killed people.

We here know very well that the only reason Azerbaijan did not start war against Armenia yet, is that we are trying to not lag far behind their militarization, which is very hard, cause we are blocked, and don’t have oil money they have. Anyway.

Tanks can stop tanks. Yazidis don’t have military power, that’s why genocide of yazidis in #2014 was possible. And no one, no one helped them from the civilized world. As well, as nobody is helping Ukraine to survive Russian aggression.

This is a very old interview, which dates March 28. Unfortunately there are no good resources in English, and best talks of Illarionov are not available in English.

Now we know, why Yanukovich refused to sign agreement with EU in the last moment. He said to his close people, that Putin promised to take Crimea and Eastern part of Ukraine if he signs the paper. He was pale and frightened as never, as they say.

Also now we know, that military operation in Crimea had no connection with Yanukovich running out of Ukraine, because according to the Defence Ministry of Russia, it started in Feb 20, four days before he run away. Yes, they minted medals, “for taking crimea”, and we can see on those medals that operation started earlier, than they were saying it started.

Also we know from the very careful studies in April, that in all Ukrainian regions overwhelming majority of the people did not feel insecure because of religion, language or ethnicity, and that majority wanted to keep Ukrainian wholeness, continue to be Ukrainian citizens. It’s obvious that there was no people’s movement, but all the troubles were organized by emulating of movement by Russian SpetzNaz.

And corruption, that’s a very good lever if you want to colonize someone. That’s the lever Russia knows how to use.

It’s very pity that by having their great potential, their scientists and engineers they, instead of creating a civilized and developed country, make draconian laws and force free and clever people to emigrate from Russia, so that only controllable and manipulatable, non educated people remain there. I hope one day Russia will become a country, we all would want to be friends with. Not the country which forces Armenia to change national language. Not the country which wants all resources, to control anything, and wants to dictate everything, pressures so hard, by not giving us to take a breath.

Yes, if you don’t like US in Iraq, you shouldn’t like Russia in Ukraine or in Armenia. Let us be free.

#ukraine #russia #tanks #military #putin #europe #azerbaijan #aggression #war #peace #nkpeace #armenia #freedom

բնօրինակ սփիւռքում(եւ մեկնաբանութիւննե՞ր)

True: we made mistakes. We tried too hard to pander to Russia in the Yeltsin era, ignoring the growth of corruption, authoritarianism and revanchism. We overlooked Russians’ resentment as their country drifted from the European mainstream and our vulnerability to the steps they could take in response. We neglected Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and the countries of the Caucasus. The Blair government was bewitched by the Putin regime’s offer of cooperation against Islamist terrorism in 2001. We have been frequently dazzled by the spurious commercial prospects offered by Russia – in particular BP’s decision to form an alliance with Rosneft, the main Russian oil company, was a shameful example of greed and short-sightedness.

very good paper by Edward Lucas

#edward-lucas #russia #putin #oil #gas #caucasus #blair #ukraine #moldova #belarus #rosneft #russian #bp #vulnerability #authoritarianism #corruption #revanchism #europe #politics #world #war #peace #regime #challenge #soviet #ussr #empire #imperialism #freedom

բնօրինակ սփիւռքում(եւ մեկնաբանութիւննե՞ր)

Russia is a revisionist power

Russia wants to rewrite the rules in three ways. First, it does not believe that its neighbours should make their own decisions about their geopolitical future. Russia’s security, in short, depends on these countries’ insecurity. Russia particularly begrudges the former captive nations of the Soviet empire their freedom, their prosperity, and their independence. These pose an existential challenge to the stagnant and autocratic model of government pioneered by the Putin regime.

very good paper by Edward Lucas

#edward-lucas #russia #putin #europe #politics #world #war #peace #regime #challenge #soviet #ussr #empire #imperialism #freedom

բնօրինակ սփիւռքում(եւ մեկնաբանութիւննե՞ր)