Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, BBC News, February 2012.
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These attacks are more likely to come from the Azerbaijani side, which has rejected international initiatives to stabilize the ceasefire by removing snipers from the front-line. As the losing side in the conflict, the Azerbaijanis make it their business to challenge the status quo, make the other side nervous and remind the world of the conflict.
http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=56322&reloadFlag=1
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so, what do I think about it, why after 20 smth years, Azerbaijan military makes much more attacks now?
Because of two possible reasons, IMHO.
a) As you may remember, Russia forced Armenia to refuse joining EU agreement, and join Eurasion Union. Armenia cut it’s connections with EU by demand of Putin. Then, Eurasian Union did not sign the paper with Armenia (how lucky we are) because they demand to put customs between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh Republic.
BTW, Armenia and NK have the same economic space, and joined World Trade Organization without problems. Why? Because NK has no other connection to the world, it’s in blockade. Actually, Armenia is also blocked by Azerbaijan and Turkey, but we still have Georgia and Iran. WTO asked Azerbaijan, if they agree to shut down NK blockade, then Armenia can join WTO without NK. Azerbaijan refused. But now Putin and Nazarbayev, the dictator club, demand us to leave this people in blockade. (: Our puppet president cannot agree, he has no support in the country, and it’s impossible to leave NK people blocked even by us. They hardly survive even now.
However, Putin does not care. He needs Armenia to sign the papers, whatever it takes. If we need to make customs on the Armenia-NK border, then we have to obey. If we don’t obey, he asks his friend, another dictator, who puts all his oil money into buying weapons (also from Russia) to heat the temperature at the Contact Line, and disrespect the ceasefire which lasted more than 20 years.
b) Putin needs to have his army to control NK. Thus he will control the territory, and can manipulate Armenia and Azerbaijan even more. In this case Azerbaijan, because he got everything he wanted from Armenia. Almost everything, we did not change the language law, did not obey and add Russian as the state language in Armenia. That’s in every paper Russia suggested within OSCE Minks group, that they need to put their “peacekeepers” in NK. When they control the territory, they can manipulate Azerbaijan to join Eurasian Union, by trading lives of Armenians living in NK. Also, they need to have military bases in Azerbaijan, and Aliyev-father promised it to Russia, and refused to do that later. So this is a way they can get what they want.
Thus Putin needs manipulate Aliyev to restart the war, to make war happen, then put “peacekeepers” and control the NK, thus three coutries in the region.
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