so Aliyev will take stronger positions both in the negotiation process, and inside the country he rules.
He would say, “we were gonna take our land back by force, but the international community asked us to give one more chance to the peaceful resolution. We of course are very peaceful and will let them try one more time.”. Practically he knows that if he had planned the blitz-krieg, to take the whole in a couple of days, then the plan have been failed. However he will pressure the Minks group, to pressure the Armenian side to agree to his demands, because otherwise, he can restart the war. That the previous threats were not just threats, and his patience has limits.
“Meanwhile, dear compatriots, we have to buy more weapons, so you have to live poor lives for some more time, because it’s for the sake of our land, and our territories” - is the message which Azerbaijani population will get.
Similar message has no meaning here - everybody knows, that their brothers and sisters[1] need to be defended.
However, Aliyev would not have this “stronger” positions, if as the result of his latest aggression, he would lost even more land. Then he would be unable to say - we can restart it, because the message they would get - as a result of an aggression we lost more.
Why they did not loose? Because the Armenian side again strived to show that they have no desire and motives to make war, or because the Armenian side simply had no resources to go forward? It’s prepared for the defending war, not the invading war. Or may be both reasons are there.
Armenian side says, that they were able to return all the lost positions before the ceasefire. I hardly believe that. It seems that Azerbaijan managed to take Talish village, came close to Mataghis, then Talish was returned back under Armenian control and Martakert district’s contact line might be indeed restored [2].
So it seems that Armenian side did not loose any populated locality, that would be impossible to hide, but probably have lost space. Well, space is vital for the populated community, that’s where the villagers work. Whatever, when the locality itself is returned, Armenian authorities can safely say that they were able to take back everything they’ve lost[3]. I guess, Artsakh forces have some territorial losses at the southern part non populated areas. Martakert part, northern part is probably indeed taken back, and people can return to repair their houses.
[1] And yes, that is not an ex-aggregation, almost anybody has relatives there. Even during Soviet times though there were no normal road, or connection(probably on purpose), Artsakh people were practically living in the cultural space of the ArmSSR, and contacts were always tight. Huge part of the company I work for, people who are 50 years old and more, are from Artsakh. Their kids are used to go to Artsakh to see their grands. I do not talk about modern times, of course, contacts now are even more tight, Artsakh is isolated, and if during USSR rule, young people who strived for the better education, could go not only to Yerevan, but also go to Baku. Now the world is accessible to them, in direct meaning, only through Armenia, that is the window they have.
[2] Martakert district of NKAO had more space, eastern part of it is under control of Azerbaijan forces, and as it’s visible on the map, they’ve managed to build pretty big populated localities there during these 20 years.
[3] This or that mountain at the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan (not Artsakh, Artsakh is defended much better, as far as I understand) are always exchanged. The border as it pictured on map, the border of Armenian SSR does not correspond to the reality. Reality is, who controls which mountain. I know it from the times I was serving in the army.
#artsakh #nkpeace